17 Apr, 2009 | by Sanjeev Kumar
All the talk about Recession and now DEPRESSION can make anyone nervous. Wall Street “ Pros “ make their predictions, and in doing so, create more chaos. This sentiment is probably shared by most folks on the main street. The market is behaving like a Yo-Yo. To get a perspective, let’s look at the rallies we had in the past week. One wonders, is this a sustainable rally or a one off, I want to feel good BEAR market rally. We are seeing markets rally despite of all the negative NEWS. One might argue that the Market is always FORWARD LOOKING. Which begs the question, is it forward looking or just SPECULATING? Let us just look at some of the headline stories of March 09, to get a perspective. GE downgraded; Germany’s growth collapsing by a record since world war II; UK and France Industrial output at lowest in over four decades; Jobless rate in the US reaching 10% in at least three states; U.S. household net worth plunging by a record $ 5.1 trillion; Japan’s GDP shrinking by over 12% annually; World Bank is now predicting a negative global growth in 2009. In spite of all these very negative news we saw the markets rallied.
Though, we saw the markets back in the RED again on 27th of March 09 after 5-6 days of consecutive rallies one could argue, what was the basis of this rally? Well may be some “INVESTORS” were expecting the worst and they believed these news were not that BAD after all? The launch of TALF and TARP program also probably helped carry the positive sentiments. The consensus view is that these programs would help but the reality is, we have a lot of continue reading »
28 Mar, 2009 | by Sanjeev Kumar
The markets seem to be questioning the government’s ability to find a workable solution to this current turmoil in other words government’s ability to find a FIX. And this is becoming increasingly evident by the way markets have reacted in the past few weeks. Al though one might say that the market itself is INEFFICIENT by design and DYSFUNCTIONAL in the current environment. And there are also those who would say that the whole MESS was created by the same market participants themselves in the first place. People who thought the party would never end and carried on with their reckless business practice. So going by the norm that the market is always right is a probably flawed perception? Well, whatever one might say, it’s hard to entirely disagree especially when we have a market that is increasingly behaving like a yo-yo. It either gets too optimistic or finds itself in a fluke rally only to shed all its previous gains or it takes an extreme negative view on everything loosing foresight.
Some would disagree with the above observation and some might agree. Whatever side you are on, one can safely say that without government support the market may not have survived.
But even with government support the market is not working as it should. continue reading »
5 Feb, 2009 | by Richard Vinhais
I think most would agree that effective verbal communication is a fundamental skill needed in order to succeed in both business and life. Whether it’s in the board room or a family outing, how you articulate your thoughts ultimately defines who you are in the eyes of others. These instant perceptions could very well dictate your opportunities for career advancement or even opportunities to build personal friendships.
Let me present you with a hypothetical scenario. Frank (nice innocuous name) has just been tasked to research a potential solution to a lingering business issue within his organization. He did the appropriate legwork and put together a solid business case to justify a project idea that will once and for all address that pesky problem. He prepares a sharp Power Point presentation to make his pitch enticing. Afterwards he’s greeted with a lukewarm response from the audience but is still confident that the supporting data is too compelling for his idea to be shot down. Several weeks go by. Frank’s then told by a colleague, in passing, that the project idea was canned. How could that be, he thinks to himself? The solution was sublime. Oh well, I guess there was just no budget for it. I have no control over that. Life goes on. Several months go by when Frank learns that the project finally gets the green light. He feels a deep sense of vindication that the organization finally came to its senses.
continue reading »
12 May, 2008 | by Richard Vinhais
Yesterday I read a very well written Fortune magazine article titled “what’s wrong with Wall Street and how to Fix It”. I’m sure by now you’ve read countless press releases on the sub prime debacle which don’t always provide a concise view of the situation we now found ourselves in. Rarely do you find articulation of such a complex topic, in written format, that provides just the right blend of depth to go with simplicity, to ensure it resonates with a broad audience. I believe this article fits that mold and wanted to summarize some of its key points and chime in with some personal commentary of my own.
The author, Shawn Tully, encapsulates Wall Street’s issues into three distinct categories. The first is their unyielding appetite for risky trading as opposed to more traditional and reliable fee based business that commercial banks tend to gravitate towards. The second is the dangerous levels of leverage these firms work with. continue reading »